A Persistent Forecast for 2021

Persistent (def) – continuing to exist or endure over a prolonged period

Wall Street forecasts lack persistence. Their shelf life may only be a few weeks or months at best. 2020 was a great example; once COVID hit, existing forecasts became worthless. This happens just about every year, and excuses abound as to why the “experts” got it wrong…again.

Despite their propensity to mislead investors, forecasts are alluring because they provide an illusion of certainty, something our brains crave. The problem is that we are looking for certainty in the wrong place.

Our forecast is persistent because it is based on enduring investment truths and investor behavior. The news and markets change all the time, but this forecast does not. Not only is it reliable, we think it’s of immense value to help investors achieve their goals.

Our 2021 Forecast

In full disclosure, this is nearly identical to our forecast for 2020 and years prior to that:

  • The economy/market will do something that surprises us
  • Investors who watch the market often will experience more stress than those who don’t
  • You will be tempted to abandon your plan at some point based on expert forecasts and/or short-term market performance
  • Investor behavior (discipline vs. chasing what is popular) will have a significant influence on total return – and is something completely in your control

Investing is simple, but not easy. It is difficult to stick with a strategy when it is out of favor. Patience and discipline are virtues because they aren’t easy, yet they are essential for your success. As your advisor, one of our most important roles is helping you decipher the noise from what really matters for your financial success.

We wish you a prosperous, fulfilling and happy 2021. Thank you for allowing us to be your trusted partner along the journey.

 

©2021 The Behavioral Finance Network. Used with permission.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Kuhn Advisors, Inc. reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that any of the trends or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable. Kuhn Advisors, Inc. utilizes best efforts that content provided is compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but makes no representation thereof and accepts no liability or any loss arising from use or reliance herein. Kuhn Advisors, Inc. is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Kuhn Advisors, Inc., including its advisory services and fee schedule, can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.